Week 11 gets rolling today in full with 12 games on the cards. I continued my hot streak with a 7-2 day in college football yesterday, including a parlay win, and thus far am 64-51-1 on the NFL season playing the number. Each day on CA Betting News during the NFL betting season, I will give you my provide you with my best plays for the week and my player props which I have for you today. Here are my top player props for week 11 using the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKing Sportsbook.
Table of Contents
Deschaun Watson (Hou) OVER 30.5 rushing yards @ Baltimore
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Watson OVER 30.5 rushing yards
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Watson OVER 30.5 rushing yards
A classic matchup of modern day quarterbacks as Lamar Jackson and Deschaun Watson square off in Baltimore. I think the better play of the two lies with Watson whose rushing number is much lower and has gone over this total in his last five games. Jackson will square off against the No. 3 rushing defense today in Houston and will have to do it more with his arm. But Watson will be taking off a lot today and showing the Ravens he can also make plays with his legs. This is a low total, in my opinion, and I think Watson easily clears it and goes over 30.5 rushing yards.
Prediction: Deschaun Watson 8 rushes, 46 yards
Dalvin Cook (Min) OVER 84.5 rushing yards vs. Denver
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Cook OVER 85.5 rushing yards
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Cook OVER 84.5 rushing yards
I made my case on Friday why I think the Vikings will take care of the Broncos pretty easily today. If they Vikings do their job and control this game, then I will pretty much gaurantee you that Dalvin Cook will have a 100-yard game, provided there’s no injury setbacks. The Broncos run defense has improved from the first few weeks of the season when they were gashed by Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette. But the Vikings run game will test their defense as the Vikings offensive line is superior here and should have their way moving the ball on the ground. Without Adam Thielen again, the Vikings will lean a bit more on the run game than usual. Dalvin Cook going to get a lot of touches and going over 84.5 yards for him is not a lot. He has done it in 4 of his last 5 games and has gone over 100-yards in a game six times this season, including in two of his three homes games. Cook has a huge game at home and goes well over this total.
Prediction: Cook 22 rushes, 127 yards
Josh Jacobs (Oak) OVER 94.5 yards rushing vs. Bengals
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Jacobs OVER 96.5 yards rushing
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Jacobs OVER 94.5 yards rushing
This is all about matchups, and when it comes to stopping the run, there’s no one worse in the league than the Bengals. They come in at No. 32 out of 32 teams in total rush defense, giving up 173 yards per game. The Chiefs are second-worst and they give up 25 yards less per game than them. That’s an incredible gap showing how bad this Bengals run defense is. The Raiders, on the other hand, are carrying a lot of momentum. They are just a half-game out of the AFC West lead and have playoffs on their mind after an impressive home win a week ago against their rivals, the Chargers. Enter Josh Jacobs and the Raiders rush offense which ranks in the top-10 in the NFL. Against the second-worst run defense in the league, the Chiefs, he ran for 100 yards in week 2 in a game where they were passing the whole second half, so by logic, he should hit this number in a game which Oakland should control and Jacobs should see a lot of carries. I love Jacobs going over this run total.
Prediction: Jacobs 19 carries, 107 yards
Summary of my plays
Josh Jacobs OVER 94.5 rush yards vs. Bengals
Deschaun Watson OVER 30.5 rush yards vs. Ravens
Dalvin Cook OVER 84.5 rush yards vs. Broncos
Eagles OVER 20.5 TT vs. Patriots (TOP PLAY)
Jaguars-Colts 1H UNDER 21.5 (TOP PLAY)
Vikings -10 vs. Broncos (TOP PLAY)
Cardinals +13.5 @ 49ers
Saints-Bucs OVER 50 points
Bills-Dolphins UNDER 41 points
Browns-Steelers UNDER 42 points – WIN
Nick Chubb OVER 79.5 rushing yards – WIN