We continue to break down all of the prop bets for the Super Bowl next Sunday between the 49ers and the Chiefs. Thus far, we are 1037-87-3 on the season as we get you ready for the final game of the season. Each day on CA Betting News, we will give you our best analysis and angles for the Super Bowl next Sunday in Miami. Here is another prop bet for you to play for Super Bowl XLIV using the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKing Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 rushing yards
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: NA
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Mahomes OVER 24.5 rushing yards
One of the more interesting stats in the postseason is the fact that Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs in total rushing yards. Yesterday, we outlined our case for Damien Williams going under 53.5 yards in the Super Bowl, but today we are going to make our case to play Patrick Mahomes going over 24.5 rushing yards. In his last two games, Mahomes has totaled 106 yards rushing with 53 yards in each of his playoff games. Mahomes hasn’t had a lot of huge rushing games over the season, but a lot of that has to do with the injuries he was dealing with to his ankle and his knee. Prior to those injuries becoming a burden, Mahomes did have success on the ground very early in the season.
Furthermore, the 49ers have a strong pass rush and will force Mahomes to move around. This will open open up some lanes for him to run down the field. The perfect example of this is with Russell Wilson who is similar in his ability to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. Against the 49ers this season, Wilson ran for 53 and 31 yards respectively, escaping the collapsing pocket and finding running lanes. I expect the same thing from Mahomes. The Chiefs pass more than 75% of the time, and at least one-third of that time will be Nick Bosa and the 49ers pass rushing forcing Mahomes out of the pocket. Sacks don’t cost quarterbacks rushing yards in the NFL, so even though he may lose some yards to their defensive line, it won’t hurt his stat line in rushing yards unless he actually takes off to run. Mahomes’ legs add another dimension to the Chiefs dynamic offense and they played a big role in their wins against Houston and Tennessee. Look for Mahomes to take off and get over 24.5 yards of rushing in this game.
Prediction: Mahomes 8 rushes, 37 yards
Super Bowl Plays Thus Far
Raheem Mostert (SF) to score a TD -125
(if Chiefs win) Patrick Mahomes to win MVP +125
(if 49ers win) Raheem Mostert to win MVP +900
Damien Williams (KC) UNDER 53.5 yards rushing
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 yards rushing