Championship Sunday is here! We have broken down both games and will give your final two plays for the games today before kickoff at 12:05 PT between the Chiefs and Titans. To summarize my feelings today, San Francisco -7.5 is my strongest play. A lot of people feel that the Packers will bounce back from their 29-point loss in late November, but teams that have lost by more than 20 points in the regular season and met that team again in the Championship are 5-12 against the spread. The matchups don’t play to the Packers hands in this, and I look for a big game from Jimmy Garoppolo. The second game is a potential hedge and could be a closer game. The news of Chris Jones likely being out today is a big injury and one that concerns me for the Chiefs in stopping Derrick Henry. I still think the Chiefs win, but I am hedging on picking them at -7.5.
Thus far, we are 100-83-3 on the betting season. Every day on CA Betting News, we will give you our best NFL plays for the week. Starting on Monday, we will begin breaking down Super Bowl LXIV and will have a play a day for you, including lots of player props over the next two weeks and some futures bets. Here are my final two plays for AFC and NFC Championship games using the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKing Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 302.5 passing yards
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Mahomes OVER 302.5 passing yards
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds:Mahomes OVER 302.5 passing yards
To put it best, the Chiefs simply don’t run the ball much, even in the playoffs, and won’t run it much today, either, despite a kickoff temperature of 18 degrees. Heck, last week the Chiefs ran 8 plays inside the five yard line and called for a passing play six of those eight plays. A week ago against Houston, Patrick Mahomes slung it around, going 23-for-35 for 321 yards in a 51-31 beatdown of the Texans. And I’ve laid out my concerns for the Titans secondary earlier in the week. It’s very similar to Houston’s in that they are much weaker in the back than they are in their front four. Therefore, the Chiefs are much more likely to try and beat the Titans through the air on Sunday rather than on the ground. The Titans ranked No. 24 against the pass during the regular season, giving up over 255 yards per game through the air. While the Titans were able to slow down a Patriots team without many weapons, the hidden statistic last week in their performance against Baltimore is they were beaten through the air pretty badly and gave up over 300 yards through the air. They just happened to make plays when it counted most, and were helped some by the Ravens self-destruction.
In these teams’ first meeting this year, Mahomes had a field day against the Titans secondary. He threw for 441 yards despite a shootout loss at home. Andy Reid is good at finding weaknesses in the opponent, and the Titans weakness is clearly down the middle in the passing game. The hope for Kansas City is they can get the ball enough and slow down Derrick Henry, which is going to be the toughest part of the game.
Prediction: Mahomes 379 yards, 3 TDs
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 1.5 TD passes vs. Packers (-130)
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Garoppolo OVER 1.5 TDs
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Garoppolo OVER 1.5 TDs
In the first meeting this season, Jimmy Garoppolo threw it 20 times, completing 14 passes and tossing two touchdowns. The 49ers offense will have a strong day today, and I’ve already outlined my case for George Kittle easily clearing 80 yards for the Championship. The 49ers will come out throwing a lot in this game much like they did a week ago. The Packers are a bit weak in the secondary, ranking No. 14 in the NFL defending the pass. Half of Jimmy G’s this year have seem him throw for multiple touchdowns, so while it’s not a common occurrence, Shannahan is known to sling it around if he sees a matchup advantage and the 49ers do have matchup advantages against the Packers secondary. The Packers have given up 19 touchdowns through the air and multiple touchdown games in 11 of their 16 regular season contests. I already predicted a four-touchdown performance from the 49ers today, and at least two of those will be passing touchdowns.
Summary of my plays for the Day
49ers -7.5 vs. Packers
Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 yards receiving
George Kittle OVER 72.5 yards receiving
Chiefs -7 vs. Titans (HEDGE if Chris Jones not playing)
Patrick Mahomes OVER 302.5 yards passing
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 2.5 TDs