NFL Odds Report 1/15: Chiefs -7 (-125) over the Titans

NFL odds report mahomes

Today, we begin our breakdown of the conference championship games this weekend. We were 1-1 on Monday picking the National Championship and went 4-4-1 in our playoff games on Saturday and Sunday. Thus far, we are 100-83-3 playing the spread and the props this year. Each day on CA Betting News, we will give you our best conference championship plays leading you right up to Sunday. Here is my first AFC Championship play using the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKing Sportsbook.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-125)

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: KC -7 (-130)

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: KC -7 (-125)

chiefsBoth games this weekend are very difficult to pick, and the Chiefs game may be the most difficult. However, statistics don’t lie, and if the Chiefs play their game the way they want to play it, they can dominate Tennessee this Sunday. There are several big factors in this game, perhaps the biggest is whether the Titans can get to the lead. If they can, this will present problems for Tennessee because the Titans have the ability to slow the game down with Derrick Henry and gash that weak Chiefs run defense which ranked No. 26 in the NFL during the season. However, if the Chiefs are able to build an early lead and get the crowd into the game, they can force Tennessee out of their comfort zone and force Ryan Tannehill to make plays.

Despite the Titans wins over New England and Baltimore, their defense gave up over 530 yards of offense in the divisional round against the Ravens. The Patriots are not a dangerous passing threat anymore and the Ravens were more of a running attack. This is the first playoff game where the secondary will be truly tested by dangerous weapons at wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback. The Titans weakness is their secondary. They ranked No. 28 in the NFL during the regular season and were completely taken apart by Drew Brees in week 16 at home. Patrick Mahomes is not as mistake-prone as Lamar Jackson. The Titans feasted off mistakes by Jackson, particularly in the red zone, and took advantage of those mistakes. The Chiefs are less likely to make these same mistakes, and recognizing the Titans secondary woes, they will throw early and often on Sunday.

There’s not a doubt in my mind the Chiefs will be able to move the ball successfully on the Titans on Sunday. The key is how many chances will they get? If they can’t shut down Henry, then the under in this game becomes a play as do the Titans. But if they can force this game into a high-scoring shootout, the Chiefs have a major advantage and can play the game like they did against Houston and ride momentum. The Titans were victorious in the teams’ first meeting; however, that was Mahomes first game back from injury and regular season matchups proved last week not to mean anything. The Texans beat the Chiefs back in October in Kansas City and got shellacked last week. I do like the Chiefs this weekend to eventually pull away. I just think their passing attack is too much for the Titans secondary and will do everything they can to keep Henry locked up. This won’t be a blowout by any stretch of the imagination, but I do like the Chiefs by a touchdown or more. They will be in Super Bowl LXIV.

AFC Championship Prediction: Chiefs 31, Titans 20